WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is contemplating searching for authorization to hold out airstrikes to help Afghan safety forces if Kabul or one other main metropolis is at risk of falling to the Taliban, probably introducing flexibility into President Biden’s plan to end the United States military presence within the battle, senior officers mentioned.
Mr. Biden and his prime nationwide safety aides had beforehand urged that after U.S. troops left Afghanistan, air help would finish as properly, with the exception of strikes aimed toward terrorist teams that would hurt American pursuits.
But army officers are actively discussing how they may reply if the speedy withdrawal produces penalties with substantial nationwide safety implications.
No choices have been made but, officers mentioned. But they added that one choice into account can be to suggest that U.S. warplanes or armed drones intervene in a rare disaster, such because the potential fall of Kabul, the Afghan capital, or a siege that places American and allied embassies and residents in danger.
Any extra airstrikes would require the president’s approval. Even then, officers indicated that such air help can be exhausting to maintain over a prolonged interval as a result of of the large logistical effort that will be essential given the American withdrawal. The United States will go away all its air bases in Afghanistan by subsequent month, and any airstrikes would most probably need to be launched from bases within the Persian Gulf.
A possible fall of Kabul is the disaster most probably to result in army intervention after U.S. troops go away, officers mentioned. Intervening to guard Kandahar, Afghanistan’s second-largest metropolis, can be far much less sure, one official mentioned. Encroaching Taliban forces have more and more threatened a number of different city hubs in virtually each nook of the nation in current months.
The dialogue suggests the diploma of concern in Washington concerning the skill of Afghanistan’s army to carry off the Taliban and preserve management of Kabul and different inhabitants facilities.
And it’s the newest indication of the scramble by the United States to handle the ramifications of Mr. Biden’s decision in April to order a full withdrawal — a aim that had eluded his two rapid predecessors, partly as a result of of opposition from the military.
Whether to offer air help to Afghan safety forces after U.S. troops pull out is one of a number of main questions on Afghanistan coverage that the administration is grappling with as Mr. Biden prepares to meet NATO allies in Europe subsequent week.
Also unresolved is how U.S. troops will perform counterterrorism missions to stop Al Qaeda and different militants from rebuilding their presence in Afghanistan, and the best way to permit Western contractors to proceed to help the Afghan army. At the identical time, the C.I.A. is under intense pressure to seek out new methods to collect intelligence and perform counterterrorism strikes within the nation.
With the Pentagon set to conclude the pullout of U.S. troops by early July, the Afghan army — created, skilled and equipped within the picture of the American army — is meant to begin defending the nation by itself.
Senior American officers say that the rapid crumbling of the Afghan army shouldn’t be a foregone conclusion. But there may be little doubt that the Afghan forces are battered and in danger of being overwhelmed, particularly if their commandos and air forces falter.
The United States shouldn’t be seemingly to offer extra air help to Afghan forces in rural areas, many of that are already below Taliban management, the officers mentioned. And even authorities enclaves across the nation, that are already below siege, are unlikely to obtain a lot army assist from American warplanes, the officers mentioned. They spoke on the situation of anonymity to keep away from talking publicly about inner administration discussions.
When Mr. Biden introduced the withdrawal in April, he promised to help the Afghan authorities, together with its safety forces; however he appeared to point that the Afghans can be on their very own militarily after American and NATO troops left this summer time. “While we will not stay involved in Afghanistan militarily, our diplomatic and humanitarian work will continue,” he mentioned on the time.
Officials mentioned then that the United States would launch strikes in Afghanistan just for counterterrorism causes, in case there was intelligence about efforts to assault American pursuits.
A spokesman for the White House’s National Security Council declined to touch upon the choices below dialogue, saying the administration didn’t publicly focus on guidelines of engagement.
But officers say there seems to be some new flexibility within the interpretation of counterterrorism. They say a debate has risen within the administration over what, precisely, is the brink for turmoil in Afghanistan that would result in American airstrikes.
The dialogue displays classes realized from the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq, which compelled the Obama administration in 2014 to recommit troops and air cowl to defend Iraqi cities because the group encroached on Baghdad.
Senior officers mentioned that in the intervening time, that threshold seemed like a looming fall of Kabul, a scenario that will most probably require a signoff from the president earlier than American warplanes — most probably armed MQ-9 Reaper drones however presumably fighter jets — offered air help to Afghan forces.
Afghan officers mentioned they’d been advised by their American counterparts that the United States would additionally cease any takeover of main cities, a imprecise assertion with none clear backing.
That help can be robust to keep up over any prolonged interval.
“It’s a very hard thing to do,” mentioned Gen. Joseph L. Votel, the previous commander of United States Central Command. “It’s an operation to get aircraft to Afghanistan, especially if you’re having to come from the Gulf or an aircraft carrier. There is limited loiter time for them to do anything.”
There are already indicators of the difficulties that the United States would face in sending crewed plane to hold out strikes after the withdrawal. As U.S. bases in Afghanistan shut, it has left pilots with a conundrum: What if one thing goes mistaken 1000’s of toes over Afghanistan?
Forward Operating Base Dwyer — a sprawling complicated within the south with a large touchdown strip — is closing in weeks, if not days. At that time, U.S. plane may have just one viable American army base, Bagram, to divert to if they face a mechanical or different subject in flight. Bagram will shut down when the withdrawal is full.
With restrictive guidelines of engagement that require hours of overhead surveillance earlier than an American airstrike is permitted, Afghan forces have tried to compensate, launching 10 to 20 airstrikes a day. U.S. surveillance drones are offering a wealth of coordinates to the Afghan Air Force, however Afghan pilots and plane are going through burnout and upkeep points that develop by the day as overseas contractors withdraw.
“Our policy should be to do everything possible, consistent with not having troops on the ground, to enable the legitimate Afghan government and security forces to hold on,” mentioned Representative Tom Malinowksi, Democrat of New Jersey and a former State Department official.
Mr. Malinowski final month joined more than half a dozen other House Democrats and Republicans in urging Mr. Biden to offer an array of help to the Afghan authorities after American troops go away, together with any data on impending Taliban assaults detected by U.S. surveillance plane and spy satellites.
Top American generals have acknowledged that the Afghan safety forces may collapse in a 12 months or two, or perhaps a matter of months, after the departure of Western army help.
Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, supplied reporters touring with him final month a lukewarm assertion concerning the talents of the Afghan forces. After 20 years of struggle, 1000’s of casualties and large sums of cash spent on the Afghan army and police, he characterised them as “reasonably well equipped, reasonably well trained, reasonably well led.”
When pressed on whether or not he thought the Afghan forces may maintain up, General Milley was noncommittal.
“Your question: The Afghan army, do they stay together and remain a cohesive fighting force, or do they fall apart? I think there’s a range of scenarios here, a range of outcomes, a range of possibilities,” he mentioned. “On the one hand, you get some really dramatic, bad possible outcomes. On the other hand, you get a military that stays together and a government that stays together.
“Which one of these options obtains and becomes reality at the end of the day?” he mentioned. “We frankly don’t know yet.”
When requested at a Pentagon information convention final month if Afghan cities had been at risk of being overrun by the Taliban after American forces left, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III declined to say whether or not the United States would supply air help, saying it was a hypothetical scenario.
Zalmay Khalilzad, the highest U.S. diplomat main peace efforts with the Taliban, issued final month what appeared to be a definitive assertion on the matter.
“We will do what we can during our presence until the forces are withdrawn, to help the Afghan forces, including coming to their defense when they are attacked,” he advised the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “But once we are out of Afghanistan, direct military support of Afghan forces such as strikes in support of their forces, that’s not being contemplated at this time.”
But three different American officers mentioned the difficulty had not been resolved in high-level administration conferences on Afghanistan.
Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt reported from Washington, and Thomas Gibbons-Neff from Kabul, Afghanistan.