Intel faces a costly and uncertain road back to glory, analyst warns of ‘pain’ ahead

Recent enthusiasm for Intel Corp.’s new chief government and his formidable plans to remodel the corporate overlooks the dangers and prices related to the chipmaker’s technique, an analyst argued Thursday.

Chris Caso of Raymond James downgraded Intel’s inventory to underperform from market carry out, writing that Intel

faces an costly and uncertain journey because it tries to recuperate from a sequence of missteps and reassert its dominance within the chip panorama.

Intel shares are up 21% for the reason that firm introduced that Pat Gelsinger, who had been serving as chief government of VMware Inc.
could be taking excessive spot at Intel. Gelsinger just lately laid out plans for Intel to expand its manufacturing capacity and launch a foundry business that might make chips for different corporations, however Caso has considerations concerning the prospects for and value of success.

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“Our underperform rating reflects not just the risk that Intel won’t reach that goal, but also the pain they will likely endure in pursuit of that goal in terms of capex, lost market share, and a shifting landscape in datacenter that will make the industry less dependent on Intel,” he wrote in a observe to purchasers.

Caso worries that demand for private computer systems has been “significantly pulled forward” due to the pandemic, which might ultimately lead to a reversion to the imply. The downside for Intel is that the imply reversion “may unfortunately occur just as Intel needs to ramp investment.”

Even although Intel might obtain some authorities help, Caso expects that the corporate’s plans to open a foundry enterprise shall be costly. “We therefore believe the fall analyst day could be a negative catalyst, as investors get the bill for that investment,” he wrote. In addition, he’s skeptical that the corporate has the know-how to successfully compete on this enterprise.

“For investors who have a higher confidence in a turnaround than we do, we simply don’t see a reason to make that bet now since any turnaround would be several years away, with many cyclical and Intel-specific issues that could weigh on estimates in the meantime,” Caso wrote.

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He’s partial to different chip names, together with Nvidia Corp.
which he upgraded to robust purchase from outperform Thursday in a signal of his “conviction in both the short and long term.” Caso additionally initiated protection of Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

with an outperform ranking and $100 worth goal, arguing that the corporate has “a durable technical advantage versus Intel.”

AMD shares have misplaced 7% over the previous three months, as Nvidia shares have risen 24% and as Intel shares have elevated 14%. The S&P 500

is up 10% in that span, whereas the PHLX Semiconductor Index

has gained 9%.

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