Congratulations For Surviving The Biggest Crash In Bitcoin History, But Is Worse To Come?

Data from Glassnode reveals that the current Bitcoin crash was the most important in historical past in greenback phrases, coming in at $2.56 billion. The “corona crash” of March 2020 was the earlier largest, at $1.38 billion.

Although 13% good points yesterday introduced welcome reduction, uncertainty nonetheless guidelines. The query on everybody’s thoughts is, are we nonetheless in a bull market?

Source: @WClementeIII on

Sentiment Remains Raw

The occasions of the previous fortnight have proven that Bitcoin is just not proof against FUD or, as some suspect, market manipulation. Holding all through this era has been a painful expertise for many. But the most important concern is that final Wednesday’s crash signaled the top of the bull run.

Debate nonetheless rages as as to if that’s the case or not. From a sentiment standpoint, a studying of 22 on the Fear and Greed Index reveals frazzled nerves are nonetheless uncooked with excessive concern.

This is a marked enchancment over yesterday’s studying of 10. But to say the market stays cautious can be an understatement.

The Fear and Greed Index measures feelings and sentiment to signify them on a scale of zero to 100. zero represents excessive concern, whereas 100 reveals excessive greed.

A take a look at the Bitcoin each day chart reveals BTC is presently beneath the 200-day shifting common, which signifies that bears nonetheless have the higher hand regardless of yesterday’s reduction rally. A detailed above the 200-day shifting common is required to allay fears that the bull market is over.

BTC is attempting to construct on yesterday’s good points and work its method above the 200-day shifting common. But till that occurs, from a technical perspective, it’s too quickly to say with conviction whether or not the bull cycle stays intact.

Bitcoin daily chart with 200-day MA

Source: BTCUSD on

What’s Next For Bitcoin?

That hasn’t stopped a flood of analysts from giving their opinion on the matter. The Founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, Tom Lee, stated volatility is the character of Bitcoin. He maintains his pre-crash value prediction of $100okay by the top of the yr.

“I believe bitcoin is hyper-volatile. That’s the character of it, however that’s what creates the reward for folks.

Again, despite the fact that bitcoin is within the penalty field now, I nonetheless assume it may exit the yr over $100,000.”

Similarly, in an interview hosted by Scott Melker, PlanB sought to reassure viewers by saying his stock-to-flow (S2F) and stock-to-flow X (S2FX) fashions recommend the bull market is undamaged.

According to his evaluation, Bitcoin is on observe to hit $100okay per the S2F mannequin or $288okay per the S2FX mannequin.

“I’m very data-driven so I don’t make that up, however I learn within the information, I look to my stock-to-flow fashions, the stock-to-flow mannequin and the stock-to-flow X mannequin, and each fashions really present we’re actually not on the finish of the cycle.

We nonetheless have some room to go till $100,000 on common or $288,000 on common should you observe the stock-to-flow X mannequin.”

S2F refers to a statistical evaluation mannequin that appears on the impact of shortage on the Bitcoin value. Critics argue that shortage is just not the only real driver of value.

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