“You will know that California has truly crossed a line when home prices start falling,” Christopher Thornberg, founding associate of Beacon Economics, a consulting agency in Los Angeles, instructed me late final yr.

And, effectively, home prices have done the opposite.

More lately — and notably throughout the Trump administration — immigration slowed considerably. Immigration represented between 0.four and 0.5 % of California’s annual inhabitants improve via the primary half of the last decade, H.D. Palmer, a spokesman for the state’s Department of Finance, instructed Shawn. But beginning in 2017, when President Donald J. Trump took workplace, that started to decline, to lower than 0.1 % final yr.

If California remains to be rising, why is it going to lose a congressional seat?

As Eric McGhee, a political participation knowledgeable with the Public Policy Institute of California, defined early final yr: “It’s a zero-sum game.”

Although for a lot of American historical past, seats have been added freely to the House of Representatives, in 1911, the quantity was capped at 435.

Which implies that your state can develop and nonetheless lose illustration, if it doesn’t develop sufficient relative to different states.

In 2011, California’s variety of representatives stayed flat for the primary time, at 53. And whereas there have been considerations about participation within the census final yr for a host of causes, demographers have been already forecasting that the state may lose a seat.

What occurs subsequent?

Broadly, the shifts will redistribute political energy throughout the nation — though it stays to be seen what that may appear to be.

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